It is Tuesday, October 7th 2008 and I have a couple of predictions for the day.
The fed has announced it is going to drop interest rates to try and rally the market and increase liquidity. This will work… for a couple of day maybe, definitely for today at least. The market will rally… not to where it was at the beginning of trading yesterday, but it will go above 10,000.
At some point people will realize that a rate cut doesn’t deal with the underlying problems in the US economy, that home prices are still dropping because banks aren’t loaning money, and that home prices are going to keep dropping for a long time to come. At that point the market will drop like a stone. All of the gains made in trading today will be erased and anyone who is investing in the market for short term profit will lose in a big way.
Now, because of how the North American economy is structured right now things are going to get bad… and soon. Have a plan for how you will deal with poverty, job loss, lack of fresh food, lack of heating oil.
I stand corrected… the stocks went up for a few minutes, then dropped. Maybe they will rally again, but I may have even been overly optimistic in my assessment.